El Paso

Analysis of City Election Runoffs Since 1998

Oscar Leeser and Dee Margo are headed towards a runoff election sometime in December. Runoff elections are scheduled 45 days after the votes ae canvassed. In addition to the Leeser-Margo runoff there are also runoffs between Alexsandra Annello being challenged by Miriam Gutierrez. In District 4, Joe Molina will face off against Sam Morgan.

There is a general narrative that incumbents face a difficult time in runoff elections.

To validate this notion, the El Paso Politics analyzed city elections since 1998.

According to our analysis, there have been 13 runoff elections between incumbents and their challengers. Only one mayoral race, in 2005, was between an incumbent mayor and a challenger.

On May 9, 2005, incumbent Mayor Joe Wardy was forced into a runoff by challenger John Cook. Cook won the runoff, 51% to 49%.

There were 12 city council runoffs between incumbents and challengers between 1998 and 2019.

City Runoff Election Analysis by Martín Paredes

According to our analysis, of the twelve incumbent city council representatives forced into a runoff election, 62% lost the runoff. This includes the mayoral runoff between Cook and Wardy.

Our analysis seems to indicate that incumbents face difficulty keeping their seats when forced into runoff.

It is important that readers note that this is the first time a city runoff election will be held in December. Previous runoff elections were held in June. Also, the runoff election will like fall right before the Christmas holiday, or right after it. This will likely affect turn out.

List of runoff elections we analyzed:

Elvia Hernandez56%
Manny Ramirez, incumbent44%
John Cook, incumbent59%
Stan Roberts41%
Jay J. Armes39%
Paul Escobar, incumbent61%
Elvia Hernandez, incumbent38%
Anthony Cobos62%
Larry Medina, incumbent38%
Jose Lozano62%
Joe Wardy, incumbent49%
John Cook51%
Ann Morgan Lilly60%
Susan Austin, incumbent40%
Larry Medina46%
Jose Lozano, incumbent54%
Paul Escobar, incumbent39%
Eddie Holguin61%
Vivian Rojas, incumbent39%
Steve Ortega51%
Melina Castro, incumbent32%
Carl Robinson68%
Lyda Ness Garcia44%
Ann Morgan Lilly, incumbent56%
Carl Robinson, incumbent51%
Sam Morgan49%
Analysis of City Runoff Elections 1998-2018 by Martín Paredes

Categories: El Paso

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