Author Topic: POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR EL PASO CWA  (Read 1738 times)

brownfield

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POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR EL PASO CWA
« on: June 02, 2013, 05:15:22 PM »

  •    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
       0557 PM CDT SUN JUN 02 2013

       AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX AND SOUTHCENTRAL-SERN NM

       CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

       VALID 022257Z - 030000Z

       PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

       SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTD SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
       WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT REMAINS
       UNCLEAR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE THREAT WILL BE...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
       TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

       DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF KABQ AND IN THE
       RIO GRAND VALLEY SW OF MESILLA LATE THIS AFTN. OTHER STG/SVR TSTMS
       WERE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO S OF KELP.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS
       INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MLCAPE WITH SWD
       EXTENT RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
       NM TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER FAR WEST TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
       AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR 4-CORNERS
       REGION THAT IS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT.  IN
       ADDITION...SOME INCREASE IN WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING
       WILL RESULT IN 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AIDING IN STORM
       ORGANIZATION. THE RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL EXIST
       ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
       PRIMARY QUESTION REGARDING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE SVR THREAT.
       CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY BEFORE
       01Z.

    brownfield

    • Guest
    Re: POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR EL PASO CWA (updated)
    « Reply #1 on: June 02, 2013, 05:41:19 PM »

  •    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
       SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 272
       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
       520 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013

       THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

       * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
         CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
         SOUTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS

       * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

       * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
         SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
           MPH POSSIBLE
         A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

       THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
       STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
       NORTHWEST OF CORONA NEW MEXICO TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
       MARFA TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
       ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

       PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

       REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
       FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
       AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
       THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
       AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
       DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

       &&

       OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...

       DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
       FROM CHIHUAHUA MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
       EVENING...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF
       THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  A VERY WARM AND
       DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE AT LEAST
       SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN MOST STORMS...WITH STRONGEST
       STORMS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...BEFORE DIMINISHING
       LATER THIS EVENING.

       AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
       TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
       KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
       MOTION VECTOR 27020.